China’s rise continues to present tremendous strategic challenges and opportunities for the United States and its allies and partners. Today, Beijing aims to connect the majority of the world’s population under the Belt and Road Initiative, dominate high-tech industry, and forge a world-class military. Despite the sustained, structural momentum behind China’s growth, increasing economic uncertainty, paired with long-term demographic challenges and tightening domestic political control, have further complicated the trajectory of Chinese power and influence in the decades ahead.
Our conclusion in 2016’s Global Risks 2035 was that state-on-state conflict posed a bigger threat than terrorism. In the two years since, the post-Cold War order has continued to unravel without a “new normal” emerging.
While the current trade war pause is good news for many concerned about a damaging escalation in tensions between two of the world’s most important economies, there remains a long road ahead before either Beijing or Washington is ready to fully commit to trade peace.
With 19 signatories in Latin America, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has earned supporters and skeptics in the Western Hemisphere. How will BRI evolve in Latin America and how will it impact the US?
A pragmatic, proactive, and forward-thinking approach is key to ensuring that a massive and evolving Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides concrete benefits to Latin America and the Caribbean. In particular, countries in the region—and the United States—should take stock of four emerging BRI trends to stay ahead of the game.
There is an intense and high-stakes competition being waged by the United States and its near-peer adversaries across the spectrum of emerging technologies, including AI. What are policy options the US can pursue and what are the implications for security strategy?