A region in flux, the Mediterranean of today–and tomorrow–faces an array of complex challenges. Demographic shifts, evolving political and security contexts, economic uncertainty, and climate change have created massive migration flows and regional instability, straining resources in southern Europe. These and other drivers of change have highlighted the increased importance of developing a transatlantic security strategy for the region. 


In Mediterranean futures 2030, Scowcroft Center senior fellows Peter Engelke and Lisa Aronsson, and Scowcroft Center deputy director Magnus Nordenman, outline key drivers of change in the Mediterranean region, analyze plausible future scenarios, and provide strategy recommendations for the United States, Europe, and their Mediterranean partners to realize shared goals for the region moving forward. The report, an analysis out to the year 2030, balances the optimism of the 2011 Arab uprisings with a sober perspective brought about by the region’s more recent past, without losing sight of the potential for a better future. In identifying solid solutions to the region’s structural problems, this report is a vital handbook for policymakers seeking to make a long-term, positive difference to the region’s fortunes.