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Fri, Dec 20, 2019

Top ten risks of 2020

2020 will likely bear more resemblance to the 1930s, as some of the developments which did not reach a denouement in the past year cross the finish line. Several simmering conflicts, symptoms of a global system under strain from US President Donald J. Trump’s “anti-globalist” America First doctrine, could well reach breakpoints in 2020. This may include a shift from the mere corroding of multilateral institutions and US alliances toward total dysfunction.

New Atlanticist by Robert A. Manning, Mathew J. Burrows

China International Norms

Wed, Oct 30, 2019

Global risks 2035 update: Decline or new renaissance?

Our conclusion in 2016’s Global Risks 2035 was that state-on-state conflict posed a bigger threat than terrorism. In the two years since, the post-Cold War order has continued to unravel without a “new normal” emerging.

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew J. Burrows

China NATO

Thu, Dec 20, 2018

Top 10 risks of 2019

Unfortunately, 2018 will not go down as a very memorable year in turning the page on the big issues of our time.  Trump is right to claim credit for starting a dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jung-un, but even that faces tests—as we outline—in the coming year. 

New Atlanticist by Robert A. Manning and Mathew J. Burrows

Conflict European Union

Dr. Mathew J. Burrows serves as the director of the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. He was appointed counselor to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in 2007 and director of the Analysis and Production Staff (APS) in 2010. As director of APS, Burrows was responsible for managing a staff of senior analysts and production technicians who guide and shepherd all NIC products from inception to dissemination. He was the principal drafter for the NIC publication Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, which received widespread recognition and praise in the international media and among academics and think tanks. In 2005, he was asked to set up and direct the NIC’s new Long Range Analysis Unit, which is now known as the Strategic Futures Group.

Burrows joined the CIA in 1986, where he served as analyst for the Directorate of Intelligence (DI), covering Western Europe, including the development of European institutions such as the European Union. From 1998 to 1999 he was the first holder of the intelligence community fellowship and served at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Other previous positions included assignments as special assistant to the US UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke (1999-2001) and Deputy National Security Advisor to US Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill (2001-02). He is a member of the DI’s Senior Analyst Service.

Burrows graduated from Wesleyan University in 1976 and received a PhD in European history from Cambridge University, England in 1983.