2020 Global Energy Forum
Setting the 2020 Energy Agenda
H.E. Suhail Al Mazrouei,
Minister of Energy and Industry,
United Arab Emirates
The Hon. Dr. Tawfiq-e Elahi Chowdhury,
Energy Adviser to the Honorable Prime Minister,
People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Chief Executive Officer,
Chief Executive Officer,
Reporter and Anchor,
Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Time: 10:30 a.m. Local
Date: Saturday, January 11, 2020
ANNOUNCER: Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the stage reporter and anchor from CNBC Hadley Gamble. (Applause.)
HADLEY GAMBLE: Good morning and welcome once again to this incredible opportunity to talk about setting the global energy agenda. We’re here at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum.
My name is Hadley Gamble. I am the anchor for CNBC here in the region and I’m also their senior international correspondent. And we have had a very busy start to the new year, have we not, and the new decade? So I want to kick off as quickly as possible and get us right back on our time schedule. This is all about setting the global energy agenda for 2020.
And with that, I want to welcome our panel. Could we have a round of applause, please? (Applause.) They may, in fact, actually join me.
Just because we’re a little tight for time, I’m going to kick off by having a brief conversation with His Excellency Suhail Al Mazrouei, who you met earlier of course, the UAE’s minister of energy. Your Excellency, I want to kick off with you before we get to the rest of the panel so you can slip off as quickly as possible.
When we talk about what we’ve seen happening geopolitically over the last several days, it seems as if things have quieted down. You’ve said that we’re not going to see a war in this region. Given that and the fact that some members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are saying that this isn’t over yet, do you believe it was a correct decision on the part of President Trump to take out Qassem Soleimani?
MINISTER SUHAIL AL MAZROUEI: Well, first of all, I will not answer that question because I’m not a politician. I am a minister of energy. You can ask me about energy or industry.
But I think – I think for us in the UAE we are optimistic about the future of the region. We are for de-escalation of any tension. And I think there is a wisdom that things will not – will not escalate, and wisdom will prevail. What’s important for us is to ensure that we as a region where most of the – where most of OPEC production comes from is a region that is stable. And I think with the GCC states and with all of the good work that we are doing at OPEC and OPEC-plus, we are optimistic that our efforts is going to continue and 2020 is going to be – as I said earlier, going to be a good year like 2019.
MS. GAMBLE: Can you walk us through specifically what the UAE is doing to ensure the security of their energy installations?
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: Again, I’m not responsible for that field. But I can tell you that energy security to us is ensuring that we supply ourself. So we have a plan within UAE, as Dr. Sultan mentioned earlier, working with ADNOC and working with all institutions, to have an energy mix and energy security for UAE.
And the second stage is our partners in the east. We are committed to ensure that they have ambient supply of hydrocarbon, and we are investing heavily to ensure that energy security for the world or our part of it to the east is well secured. We are bringing new partners with us in these investments, and I think they believe in the security of UAE. That’s why they are investing and increasing their investments.
So I’m – that’s, I think, what worries me, is – oh, and that’s what I – my ministry takes care of, is the energy security. And I can assure you that we are in a very good position to secure ourself and to keep securing our customers in the east.
MS. GAMBLE: And in terms of what happens next for 2020 specifically, when we talk about the volatility in prices that we could potentially see off the back of geopolitics – it’s not over yet kind of mentality – what happens next in your strategic thinking, not just as the UAE but as a member of OPEC-plus at this point? Because there are a lot of known unknowns. What’s the most concerning to you of those?
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: Well, first of all, I think the deal that we have managed to achieve at the end of the year, when we met in December as OPEC and OPEC-plus, was a good deal to ensure that the slowdown – that we are prepared for the slowdown in the – in the first quarter of 2020. And we are meeting in March to discuss any measure that we need to – we need to do.
The objective for all of us in OPEC and OPEC-plus is not to achieve a certain price. The objective for us is to maintain the market balance so investors can invest. And are we there always? No, because when the United States – the production from the United States was exaggerated and it’s very difficult – we can understand it’s very difficult to manage; thousands of companies are producing. But when everyone was producing, they get ahead of themselves, they overproduced, and what suffered is the profitability. And we discussed last year are they making money for their investors? Not always. And I think most of the productions for 2020 and 2021 is a slowdown, if not going flat in 2021, and that is – that is something that we cannot control. So what is outside our hands is those producers outside the OPEC-plus, we cannot control them.
And we are doing our best to manage the situation and try to adjust our production to ensure that we are providing enough supply, but at the same time we are not building inventories to reduce the prices to a level where it’s catastrophic for those investors and we lose the U.S. We don’t want to lose the producers from the U.S. We need them. We want them to be producing at a pace that is reasonable and sustainable. So those are – those are the areas that – so it’s like walking on a thin line. It’s very difficult. It’s very difficult not to tip sometimes. And I think with OPEC-plus now we have more certainty on ensuring that we are – we are crossing the line.
MS. GAMBLE: So in terms of the known unknowns, more concerned about the future of the shale industry in a sense than you are about the geopolitical shocks for 2020.
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: It’s a known to us and we try to get the best predictions, and I can assure you every year they give us a prediction for three years and they’ve been proven wrong. So they tell us we will produce a million in the next three years or a million 200, and sometimes they get – that forecast is wrong. And it’s not easy to substitute a million barrel(s). And when you don’t substitute a million barrel(s), what happen? The prices goes higher. Then, as His Excellency Fatih Birol mentioned, the world is in need for supply but also to avoid fluctuations. When fluctuations happened we all lose. We lose as producers. We gain on the short term, but we lose on the longer term. We want to ensure that this – that the investments is continuing, and we need to ensure that this – the oil is coming from different place.
MS. GAMBLE: So at the end of 2019, in conversation with Steven Mnuchin in Doha, I asked the treasury secretary where does this completion of phase one of this trade deal actually put us. He seemed extremely positive about the global outlook given the fact that they’d managed to come to at least a preliminary agreement. Where do you think that puts us today in terms of demand?
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: Well, demand is healthy. But the issue is, how do you forecast the supply? So demand I have no – I think we are at a better position 2020 than 2019 when it comes to demand forecast. The tension between the U.S. and China, the trade tension, is easing, I would – I would say. Then we are where we were before. So from a demand point of view I’m not worried.
I’m worried about either lack of supply on the longer run because we are not investing or an oversupply in the short term. And the role of the U.S. production is very crucial in the short term. Therefore, we need to extend that cooperation with the – with the producers to understand what is the true expectation or the actual production coming in 2020 and 2021.
MS. GAMBLE: Talk me through those preliminary conversations that you’re having. As you mentioned, there are thousands of companies in the United States that are involved in the shale industry at this point, including so many in this region as well in terms of being investors. Are we ever going to see potentially the secretary of energy from the United States on the sidelines of an OPEC meeting?
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: No, no. I don’t – I think that’s against the law of the United States, and anyone who is sensible will tell you that. Plus, it’s not one producer. So the secretary of energy of the United States has no control over those thousands of producers. So I think this is a fiction. It will never happen.
The United States, like many other producers who are outside the group, are outside the group. What’s important for us is to have a dialogue of understanding what is coming from each play and ensure that we have a balance.
We need to spend money, and we are doing in the United Arab Emirates, to ensure that we have a capacity production that we can tap into when we have a disaster or a situation which would require more production. If countries are not – if we don’t have that extra layer, the extra production allocation that we could – that a country has, then we will be in a very difficult position. If every country’s at peak and then something happen(s), there is – there is no one who could – who could replace those barrels. And what is not needed? Tension, wars, different forms of restriction of production. All of these, when they come at a sudden, they don’t help us in the planning. And I think with more than 20 countries now with the OPEC-plus, we are – we are more equipped to deal with such situations than before when we were only 10 or 12.
MS. GAMBLE: And finally, Your Excellency, before I let you go, in terms of that OPEC-plus agreement there have been multiple reports in the press that the Russians are having a much more difficult time internally justifying their membership with OPEC-plus at this point. Is there any credence to those rumors? Can you walk us through what we can expect to see in March?
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: No, I – we will always have a discussion and a candid, smart discussion between us as producers. But I can assure you Russia is committed as any other country. We met. They signed the Declaration of Cooperation. If Russia was suspicious of the future of this cooperation, they wouldn’t – they wouldn’t sign. They would just kick the can for another year or so. So signing a longer-term commitment of collaboration with OPEC, whether it’s Russia or any of the other countries who have joined, it – this is, I think, a commitment to work for long term.
They understand now, working with us for several years, that we’re not after a price. We’re after a balance. And they have reaped the benefits of such – of such an agreement, where we manage to stabilize the supply and demand balance I think more than any time in the – in the past. And we have the hope to continue doing that in the future. Therefore, all of the countries who have signed the Declaration of Cooperation and the continuation of it are committed, and I don’t think – if Russia have a different opinion in term(s) of when do we stop, when do we end, or do we cut or do more, or do we cut this, UAE would have sometimes a similar argument on a technical basis, or Saudi Arabia, or any other country, but that doesn’t mean that we don’t disagree. Once we agree on something together – we debate. Once we sit in the room and we agree, then whatever we agree everyone is committed to the level.
MS. GAMBLE: Is there a backup plan if OPEC-plus were to fall apart?
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: There is no reason to think it will fall apart, because if it was – no one forced the countries to sign a longer-term Declaration of Cooperation for OPEC-plus. They could have said – if there was a doubt they wouldn’t sign. They would just sit and say let’s extend it for another year or couple of years and see. I think to reach a position where they are signing, I think that’s a commitment of a longer-term cooperation with the OPEC countries. And now every decision we do as OPEC we take – we take them aboard and we convince them and manage to convince them. So I’m not worried about that risk to put a mitigation for it.
MS. GAMBLE: Your Excellency, thank you so much for joining us this morning to talk about setting the global agenda for 2020. We’ll let you slip away if you wish.
MIN. AL MAZROUEI: Thank you very much. And it’s really sad to leave you guys, but I really have a commitment that I have to attend to. Thank you very much. (Applause.)
MS. GAMBLE: So just to quickly reset, we’re talking about the global agenda for 2020. I’m really excited to have you guys joining us. I just want to introduce our amazing panel: Michael Sen, he’s the chief executive officer of Siemens Energy; also, Majid Jafar, the CEO of Crescent Petroleum; and the Honorable Dr. Tawfiq-e Chowdhury, he’s energy advisor to the Honorable Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us. And I think I’m going to take the chair so that I get to be seated, too.
I want to kick off actually by walking through some of the events that we’ve seen over the last week, an incredible series of events geopolitically. His Royal Highness Turki Al-Faisal told me just a few weeks ago, when we were having a much longer conversation about the role of energy in this region and politics, he said, the oil market binds the world together, and it has since 1945. And he expects that to be something that continues.
Majid, walk us through, in your opinion, what happens next in Iraq because it’s very difficult to separate the politics from the energy, and one wonders, at a time when, you know, the protests for the last several months in Iraq really were focused for so long on the Iranian influence in that country. Protests of the last several days have been very much focused on the United States’ presence in the country. Is it time for the U.S. to get out of Iraq?
MAJID JAFAR: So I think the protests in the last few days have been against all foreign interference in the country or are using Iraq as a battlefield. Iraqis don’t want that. They feel now that this is somebody else’s war that is being fought out on their territory, and the state has been weak.
But what’s really been driving them is these young people wanting better opportunity. The system has failed to deliver on the private-sector-led economic growth and job creation.
On the energy side, despite all the challenges, the war on ISIS, the reserves picture is up to 140 billion barrels and growing. The production is up to five billion barrels a day, number two in OPEC and the fastest growing. And there was some better rapprochement between the federal government and the Kurdistan regional government around revenue and cooperation. So that’s all positive.
Our own operations continue unaffected. We’re obviously monitoring the security situation. We have a few U.S. expats, but not many. We’re really almost 90 percent local staff and trying to get that as close to a hundred percent as possible.
The government is supposed to be changing. This government has resigned in Baghdad, and there is supposed to be an interim government to oversee new elections at some point this year. Now whether this government itself carries on until those elections happen, that may be the case. So that is all expected later in the year. But for the time being, everybody wants to see calm; nobody wants to see conflict. And I think that’s reflected across the region and worldwide in governments as well as the private sector.
MS. GAMBLE: In terms of what’s happening in the south, you guys have three billion (dollars) or so invested in Iraq in the energy sector. When you look at what happens more politically in the country, the danger of operating inside Iraq, this is something that folks in the region are more or less immune to in many ways, but certainly when it comes to international oil companies and the presence of Americans, we see folks get very jittery. Can you set the scene for us there in terms of what’s actually happening on the ground?
MR. JAFAR: So our three billion (dollars) actually, as a group, covers all sectors, including the ports in the south, the power sector. About half of that is in the oil and gas sector.
We are a regional company, and we are there for the long term. Of course we have insurance policies, security policies and, you know, you can’t be blind to risks, but we are committed long term. And we – yes, there are some Western companies who are very quick to withdraw or down tools when there is a risk, but we see other companies who take a longer-term view – in particular, Chinese companies – in a big – committed to Iraq in a very big way, whether it’s the national oil companies, private companies, service companies, and with capital, as well.
So I think the progress will continue in Iraq. The challenge now actually facing the country is infrastructure. The reserves are there. There are serious bottlenecks on export capacity, processing, pipelines, and policy and decision making is, you know, holding back progress.
And locally, the key priority is stopping flaring, reducing flaring of gas, but using the gas that Iraq has to deliver electricity. It’s a tragedy that 15 – well, more, actually now – getting close to 17 years after the 2003 invasion, there’s still big parts of the country who don’t have 24-hour electricity per day – a lot less than that. And that was, again, one of the things driving the demonstrations.
MS. GAMBLE: Dr. Chowdhury, I want to bring you in on that in terms of the moral imperative and necessity for making energy readily available – obviously something that you’ve been focused very, very closely on from Bangladesh.
Talk me through the renewable versus traditional energy sources argument there because your government has made it a serious priority to get the country electrified.
TAWFIQ-E CHOWDHURY: Let me set the context correctly, you know. We are a low- and middle-income country. In the 2020 decade, if we look where we want to be a middle-income country at the end of the decade, which means we want to be a trillion-dollar-plus economy. Now the energy demand is growing about 10 percent per annum.
But the priority is to give energy access to ordinary folks. These global compulsions, they come much later, you know. So if we want to give, then, this strategy is like an algorithm, you know; it keeps changing as we are able to meet the hierarchy of needs.
Now, for example, by following a very focused strategy, we have been able to give access to electricity almost to all of the Bangladeshi population, but we didn’t forget that there are other obligations or other opportunities. And you will be surprised to know that we have over 20 million people who access ordinary energy services from solar system. These are called standalone solar home system.
Innovation there are also very important. I know you all talk about electric cars, and Teslas, and all. We have our small Tesla, and these are three wheelers, electric cars, about half a million of them. They are all high-occupancy vehicles. They go around local village roads and all. Maybe someday we’ll build upon that.
So countries have to look for their own solutions as they progress through their pathways. And the prince of Denmark is gone, but at least we have a – you know, the asymmetry of economic power between importers and exporters, that remains a very sore point. And countries make budget based on some price expectation. Now if they go very well, then the budgets – you can manage the budgets. And I would possibly think that OPEC or oil-exporting countries may think in terms of having a fund for emergency financing so that if the prices have spikes, countries – importing countries could immediately access their finance because the first thing back is a cash-flow problem. Then you have the other problem.
As we move along, we are, you know, diversifying our energy mix. We started off with liquid fuel. Moving out of liquid fuel we are importing LNG now. We have two FSRUs. We are moving into gas-based power station. We also will be commissioning our nuclear – first nuclear pipeline in about couple of years’ time. We’re trying to find out whether we have wind resources. It’s all not only producing electricity, you know; in consuming energy, you have to find ways of being – doing more with less. And it’s very critical, you know.
I sometimes wonder, when I see the glittering cities. I just wish they’d turn off the light. Maybe so much of energy could be saved. Or if we change our habits. We decide that we’ll not drive the car on a certain day. So much energy can be saved. So it’s a question of behavioral issues out there. We should not be feeding the unlimited consumption; that we must restrain and be responsible to our place in the earth. So we are also focusing on them. You know –
MS. GAMBLE: I want Michael and Majid to jump in on that in terms of ESG and the energy narrative going forward in terms of the ability of companies looking eastward in terms of the money that you guys are thinking of putting into these different sectors. I mean, where do we go from here? Michael?
MICHAEL SEN: So where to put the money and in which sectors? Look, the – what we heard in the last couple of minutes is actually a perfect showcase how to allocate your resources and money because this whole energy transition would be heard – is happening at different levels from a different vantage point in each country.
So, for example, we just heard – and Siemens is also very committed to Iraq, and we heard about critical infrastructure, verities about building up, re-electrifying the critical infrastructure so that you can take the next steps in your country in taking your civil society to the next level.
When I heard what’s happening in Bangladesh, we also come into play because to cater more or less to basic needs in a mix of energy we can help with technology. We can even help what we did in Iraq, what we did in Egypt to help build from a conceptual point a roadmap how to electrify a country. When I look at here in Abu Dhabi and the Middle East, where I would say this is the perfect lab where you have a mix of different kind of sources and you even go into very new fields – we haven’t talked about hydrogen, for example, green hydrogen – we can go together with partners here in pilot projects. When we talk about Germany, for example, then it’s about how we build out the renewables. And then building out an energy system becomes literally a system topic, because as you diversify your energy generation mix the stability of the system and the grid becomes even more important. And then we talk about topics like digitalization. And this is all where the funds and the resources go.
MS. GAMBLE: Majid, when you think about what happens next with regards to Iraq specifically and from the private-sector perspective, you’ve said in the past that Iraq’s oil reserves have the potential to exceed those of Saudi Arabia. Part of this is an issue of governance no doubt, but what’s holding Iraq back at this point?
MR. JAFAR: So I think infrastructure and policy would be holding back, and decision-making on actually moving forward. You know, the reserve potential is clearly there.
Picking up on actually Dr. Tawfiq’s very – you know, he summarized it in one sentence that yes, climate change and the emissions, these are important, but we’ve got so many people who don’t even have electricity yet. And this is – you know, we heard from Fatih, his base presentation, there’s a disconnect between perception and reality in that the world has been led to believe – and by the world, I mean really Europe and the costs in the U.S., but that’s where the capital comes from, the capital markets also – that somehow you don’t need oil and gas anymore and we can turn onto renewables tomorrow.
MS. GAMBLE: Is that the Greta effect?
MR. JAFAR: Sorry?
MS. GAMBLE: Is that the Great effect?
MR. JAFAR: Well, it’s actually – even though it isn’t true, it’s having an impact. There is a serious divestment agenda trying to withhold capital or withdraw capital from the sector, which could lead – there’s been massive underinvestment in the sector in the last few years, and that could lead to more price shocks and actually more burning of coal, then, as a result in the developing world because it’s cheaper and it’s available. So your emissions are going to go up further.
So we have this situation where the concern is coming from the West – not to say that the developing world is not concerned about it, but as we heard there are energy-access priorities, which is an SDG that’s actually higher-ranked also – and at the same time the growth in emissions is coming from the East. But the emissions per capita in these developing countries is half to a tenth or even below of the West, so there is an unfairness there. There is a sense of an inequality of emissions, as well as income. It’s like you, the West, are telling us not to take your path to growth, where we have all these people that we need to provide the energy to.
So it’s not being tackled in a holistic way globally. We saw that in Madrid, you know, in the COP-25. They couldn’t agree on how to price the carbon and how to actually – you know, so on the one hand European countries are, you know, subsidizing renewables for hundreds of billions, and yet solar and wind is still 2 percent of global energy consumption. On the other hand, they don’t want to consider green aid, as they call it. They don’t want to really pay for the developing world, where the emissions are rising, to be able to have cleaner energy choices. And even more than that, when you have trade wars and major economies like China need to import gas, for example, why would they choose that if there’s going to be a supply security risk as well as just the cost side?
MS. GAMBLE: We only have a few minutes left, but I want to get your opinion, gentlemen, just coming down the line in terms of from the industrial, the private sector, and then as well – obviously, the government sector as well, is your deepest concern going into not just 2020 but the broader decade as well. Is it, you know, the short-term price shocks that we’re continuing to see as a result of the geopolitics? Is this something that you see going down the pike as a long-term impact on your investments and your strategies? Or is it more broadly the investment case and how it’s being shaped globally, given the concerns with climate change? Dr. Chowdhury?
MR. CHOWDHURY: I believe in the destiny of mankind. So one single incident in Sarajevo or some other incident should not, you know, wreck the system. So having faith in the system, we look forward to a decade where, you know, we would come to terms with reality as we move forward. Like, as you said, our per capita footprint, carbon footprint, is only .4 metric ton per annum, whereas in OECD countries it’s 20 metric ton part of it. So we should not be sharing the burden, but – and we want, you know, the other countries and multilateral organization to appreciate our challenges.
You know, we are setting up some coal-fired power plants with the best technology – almost clean coal, but you know, coal. But you know, all these other multilateral organization are not even touching those projects. We have to find other ways of doing it. But you know, this kind of discriminatory policy in terms of time horizon, it wouldn’t do very well for the world.
But I’m sure, you know, we will get into our senses, we’ll cooperate with each other. You are a very wise group of people. Our times have passed. But I think we’ll be able to put together our head(s) and work out something good for the world.
MS. GAMBLE: Majid?
MR. JAFAR: So I think from the oil and gas sector’s perspective we need to do a better job of measuring our impact in our operations and our product, and getting the message out there about how oil and gas is a critical part of the solution and it’s not the problem, because at the moment we’re being demonized like we’re the new tobacco. And so there’s a report we’re launching today in partnership with the Atlantic Council on the role of oil and gas in the carbon – in the low-carbon transition.
So we went and measured what we do. We’re now 85 percent gas in the mix, so we’re a gas and oil company now. Our carbon intensity in terms of our production is down to about five kilos per barrel of oil equivalent, whereas the industry average is somewhere between 18 and 25. So we’re, like, below a third of the industry average or down to even a fifth of the industry average. Our gas flaring is down to .7 percent and we’re trying to get that down even further. We’ve eliminated single-use plastics from all our operations. And more importantly, the gas we’ve produced in the last decade substituting for diesel for power generation has enabled savings of 35 million tons of CO2. That’s like taking all the cars in the UAE off the road for two years. And we plan to more than double that over the next decade. And as we heard from Fatih Birol at this meeting last year, gas substituting for coal has had a hundred times’ bigger impact than electric cars in reducing emissions. But we as an industry need to get these messages out much better than we have been.
MS. GAMBLE: Michael.
MR. SEN: Yes. Actually, I’m not concerned, also, not looking into the decade, because I know the issue which we debated for the last couple of hours between, you know, the rising demand for energy, a billion people not having energy – access to energy, yet the impetus and the need for decarbonization. This is exactly what I feel is our mission as our company, because our technology and our capabilities will serve as a bridge and will bring the solution.
So as an industrial leader, I think we should take lead and responsibility. And that includes that we need to have a dialogue, a much closer dialogue also with this polarizing end, because it’s not only the topic as such; you see this polarizing in civil society. You see a younger generation in many countries speaking up, and then there are the needs of the others. And as they go far apart and have more radical views, maybe, who is the rich? Who takes the responsibility and then caters solution? This is exactly where I feel we can offer something, we will offer something with clear proof. And also need to be very much in touch with politicians because the only impediment I see which will hamper that process is the regulatory environment.
MS. GAMBLE: So can I get a sense of more or less optimistic than you were a year ago about the economic outlook?
MR. CHOWDHURY: There’s no other choice. Live life with optimism, you know. And we firmly believe that also.
MR. JAFAR: So I’m certainly optimistic on the economic outlook and the potential for good that our industry can do. My concern is about the image that it has – it has somehow obtained at the moment. And if this divestment agenda starves the industry more and more of capital and more people see it as an industry that they should not be investing in, my concern is over the longer term that these reserves won’t be developed. Or it may be that they end up being all owned by Asian governments. It may be a different shareholder if the West chooses not to invest. We’ll have to see.
MR. SEN: I think we’re entering a new age of electrification. We have heard a little bit in the presentation before how sector coupling works. So the energy demand is increasing, but in a different shape and form. And this is a new age of electrification, which is a great opportunity for us.
MS. GAMBLE: Gentlemen, thank you so much. The global energy agenda for 2020 and the outlook for the decade.
MR. SEN: Thank you.
MR. JAFAR: Thank you. (Applause.)
ANNOUNCER: Ladies and gentlemen, we will now take a brief coffee break. Please make sure to take your belongings with you, as we will be rearranging the room for the next session.